Boston Celtics Preview

dEDGE Post Scriptum

The Big Three + 1. Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen formed the nucleus of the 2008 NBA Champion Boston Celtics. But since that ill-fated date two years ago, the young point guard for the Celtics, Rajon Rondo, has come into his own and made a name for himself. This season, Rondo has ascended the throne alongside the Big Three and may even have stolen the torch in the process. Rondo
has taken over the reins of the team, leading them past the Heat, then immobilizing the Cavs, and then punching holes into the porous Magic defense. His triple double of 29-points, 18 rebounds, and 13 assists against the Cleveland Cavaliers shook the sleep right out of Boston fans still mumbling to themselves over their bumbling Bruins. No longer was it just a possibility that the Celtics might be able to get past Lebron and push towards the Finals, but now it was a certainty as well as their due destiny. Rondo has been the spark-plug for the Celtics and at times looks to be their first option on offense, splitting the double-team or utilizing the pick-and-roll to perfection. His long wingspan enables him to snare steals at an astounding rate while allowing him to score with relative ease over taller, bigger players. He reminds me of a young Nick Van Exel, confident, cocky and capable of knocking down the big shot.

Leaving Rondo open on the perimeter is sketchy defense at best. His outside shot has improved dramatically although he is still somewhat uncomfortable to shoot from behind the arc.

If he is left alone on the perimeter, he is more than capable of draining jump shot after jump shot. But Rondo is at his best in transition or off the dribble. He has a flair for squeezing through seams and scoring over bigs with a very accurate floater. Double team him off of his penetration and he finds the open man for the easy score.

If a defender is allowed to body-up and play Rondo physical, he is prone to back off to avoid contact. Rondo, a mere featherweight compared to Fisher has a decided speed advantage but so did Steve Nash and Deron Williams. Containing Rondo from taking over the game is a huge key to limiting Boston’s offense. The Celtics now have three players who can create shots for themselves along with Ray Allen who acts as the designated hitter. Preventing Rondo from going off is paramount, especially at Staples Center where it remains imperative for the Lakers to maintain home court advantage.

Garnett, coming off the first serious injury of his career, continued to have his share of problems this season. He was only a shadow of himself when he first came back to action, almost Kobe-like in that he appeared to be only a shell of himself. Well, we all know how things eventually ended up for Kobe and likewise, KG is back to, or near full strength. His turnaround jumper appears to have returned as has his rebounding tenacity. Something that never left his side was the sneer and his foaming at the mouth whenever given the opportunity. Garnett remains the emotional leader of the Celtics and both Kendrick Perkins and Glen Davis in particular benefit off of his energy-inducing play.

But of all of the veteran Celtics that Doc Rivers has at his disposal, the most vulnerable may be Garnett. Incapable of exploding off of his first step, KG must now rely on a series of side to side movements and fakes, which typically results in a fade-away jumper heading towards the baseline.

Although his mouth is in Finals-mode, his leg is not and may never be again. If you attack Garnett with quickness and speed, the advantage definitely tips in your favor. But if the post allows KG to bump and grind, and slow the game down to his speed, this plays right into his hands. Gasol had very limited success against Boston the last time around and I’m sure KG will remind him once again of his shortcomings in 2008.

But the player who holds the upper hand in this match-up is Lamar Odom. No longer intimidated by KG, LO actually plays well whenever Garnett barks. His late arrival to the Finals in 2008 has loomed large in his mind and is evident as shown in LO’s regular season performances against Boston this season. LO is looking to be personally vindicated and will let his all-around game do the talking this time around.

There will be at least one wheelchair moment when Paul Pierce mysteriously goes down feigning serious injury. These breaks in action actually benefit the Celtics who look to stop a run by any means possible. Pierce was on a tear against Orlando ever since the chore of guarding Lebron had been removed. Pierce is the centerpiece and 2008 Finals MVP that poses many problems for the Lakers. He can score from outside, on the dribble drive, and in the post. At key moments he is Kobe + 20 lbs. Pierce is excellent at drawing fouls and is dependable from the line. Pierce doesn’t beat you with speed or one particular move, but with bits and pieces that at the end of the night, amount to a complete game. He is averaging 19.1-points in the playoffs to go along with 6.2 rebounds and 3.6 assists per game.

Whereas Pierce was guarded primarily by Radmanovic in 2008, then in late game situations by Kobe, the Lakers have a definite upgrade in Ron Artest. Artest possesses the size and strength to shove Pierce off the blocks and is a much more capable perimeter defender to keep Pierce longing for Vladimir.

The key to this match-up is who gets into foul trouble first. If it is Artest, the Lakers defensive alignment really gets screwed up. Do they go with Josh Powell? Luke Walton? Or do they switch Kobe onto Pierce while everyone else does the hokey-pokey? Pierce is one of the few players that can actually give Kobe problems in the post.

His size is something Kobe cannot deal with effectively. But out on the perimeter, Kobe is capable of halting Pierce’s attempts with a little bit more efficiency. In the last series against Phoenix, we got Bonus-Artest. His offense was a welcome surprise and will be much needed against Boston. I look for this match-up to neutralize itself with both Artest and Pierce having clear advantages in certain games. The key is to make sure Artest excels at home.

Playing better than any other Celtic, Ray Allen appears to have found the Fountain of Youth. Allen understands his role and he has lived it up in these playoffs. No longer just a jump shooter like he was all of last season, Ray-Ray has attacked the basket more like when he was a rookie back in Milwaukee. His 16.8 points per game are second on the squad. Jesus will run you ragged if you don’t keep up with him. He requires only a fraction of a second to unleash his deadly shot, this coming off of multiple screens designed to free him up on either baseline. His constant motion requires an attentive defender to stay with him at all times. And when bigs come out to help, this post-season, Allen has taken flight and gone to the hoop. His 3-point accuracy can turn a tight contest into a blowout, but unlike the others, Allen will only create for himself if a smaller defender is guarding him.

Look for Fisher and Kobe to switch back-and-forth between Allen and Rondo. Fisher will definitely draw an illegal screen fighting through the myriad of picks, whereas Kobe will dare Allen to score over or around him. If Ray-Ray cannot produce like 2008, he will find himself on the bench in lieu of Tony Allen, a much more defensive minded presence. On defense, Allen is an average defender one-on-one. But he needs secondary help from his bigs as he attempts to steer his man down the funnel. This is where the Lakers can look to exploit Boston on defense with the quick dish off of the initial dribble penetration.

Rasheed Wallace, Glen Davis and Tony Allen are the primary reserves that will see plenty of action. To a lesser degree, Michael Finley and Nate Robinson may see some minutes, depending on the game circumstances. Marquis Daniels, out since suffering a concussion against Orlando in Game 5 has been ineffective and will probably see his minutes go to Robinson. Sheed has been a major disappointment this season, although he has had moments of glory in the playoffs. His volatile temper remains a distraction and while he is still capable of knocking down the big three, his propensity to shoot you out of the game looms much larger. Davis will get big minutes spelling both Kendrick Perkins and Garnett. He is an underrated offensive threat, and a decent defender in the post. Both Bynum and Gasol will have to play with a lower center of gravity to avoid getting pushed off the block. Davis is the main man off the bench in most circumstances and also look for him to replace Perkins in the starting line-up should he get a one game suspension.

That leaves Kendrick Perkins, the man who holds the key to the series. Perkins is one technical foul away from a one game suspension and the odds of him picking up another are even-money. If Perkins is forced to sit out, that leaves either Wallace or KG to shift over to center. KG cannot stop a healthy Andrew Bynum. He has neither the size or the girth to battle him down low. Rasheed stands a better chance against Drew but Boston’s staff have yet to trust him for long periods of play. Perkins is the muscle behind Garnett’s mouth. He is the enforcer, the one to deliver the hard foul and the one who will knock your head off if you don’t see his screen coming. But he is also limited in his offensive skills, so anything you get from him is pure gravy. If Bynum is unable to score and establish himself as a threat, Gasol will be double-teamed every time he receives the ball in the post. Boston feeds off of their help defense and thrives by punishing those who venture into the lane. Garnett and Pierce’s man-to-man defense are not what they used to be but their team defense has only gotten stronger.  If the Lakers think they’re sore now, wait until after the first few games.

Home court advantage must be secured. It’s not unthinkable (although I believe it is highly unlikely) for the Celtics to win all three contests on their home floor. Baffling their bigs into guessing who to guard and who to leave open is the biggest obstacle that the Lakers present. But if our bigs don’t show, this only makes Boston’s job that much easier. We must avoid falling into the same trap from 2008, when everyone on the Celtics had an opportunity to take their shot at Kobe, exhausting him to the point of being unable to finish when we needed him the most.

Perkins MUST be forced to guard Bynum, otherwise he will roam and be a huge presence on defense. Keep him honest and you can attack against single-coverage. Simple, lenient math has Pierce canceling out Kobe, Gasol matching Garnett, Rondo, Davis and Allen pacing LO, Artest and Fish. Give or take a few points here and there and it looks like a pretty even match-up. That leaves us with Bynum versus Perkins.

We are all too familiar with the potential of Andrew Bynum yet we are fully cognizant of his ability to disappear. We need 12/8/2 at the bare minimum from Drew in order to be successful. Anything more is pure gravy.